Up? Down? Sideways? With so many companies issuing reports on the Florida housing market, figuring out the landscape can be confusing.
BY ANA MARIA LIMA
anaalaya@yahoo.com
First-time homebuyer Gabriel Muniz would rather forget the statistics nightmare he suffered when he was looking for a house.
The 28-year-old government employee had a tough time figuring out the plethora of housing reports in the news about home sales, prices and foreclosures. He turned to consumer websites like Trulia and ZipRealty for data, but discovered some outdated information. He scoured government websites for numbers.
"It was probably the worst time of my life,'' said Muniz, who recently bought a three-bedroom townhouse in the Catalina Isles development of West Miami-Dade. "I thought it would be fun.''
Indeed there is a vast array of housing numbers available to consumers and investors and it can be difficult to get a true picture of the market. In order to take advantage of the information, experts say, buyers and sellers should be aware of different methodologies behind the statistics, the motives of the groups that publish reports, and the source of their data.
And in an area as diverse as South Florida, home to everything from luxury waterfront condominiums to urban neighborhoods, everyone needs to be extra cautious of housing statistics that may offer an overly broad view.
"It's a pretty confusing cloud of data out there to a lot of people,'' said Andrew Leventis, senior economist for the government's Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight. "Even to experts it's sometimes difficult to reconcile the different numbers.''
The federal government analyzes home values for the same single-family houses over time, but the data is limited to mortgages of less than $417,000, the maximum amount allowed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government's lending agencies.
The Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller Index, widely reported housing information that is targeted to economists, government officials and financial services companies, looks at all single-family homes sales over time, regardless of mortgage amount, but it excludes new construction. For each house that has sold twice, a computer model assigns a weight based on several factors, including whether a home was remodeled, or neglected, and how much time passed between sales.
Florida Realtors, which also releases housing data, uses yet another methodology. The group calculates the median price -- the point at which half the homes sold for more, half for less -- of all the homes sold during a particular month. The data is collected from the Multiple Listing Service, where real estate agents list properties for sale.
Realtors data does not include new homes sold by developers, private transactions and homes sold by the owners.
Different methodologies have led groups to different conclusions.
"It seems like a lot of times the numbers will come out and they are opposed to each other,'' said Jack McCabe, CEO of McCabe Research & Consulting.
Experts stress that conventional methods using the median prices of homes in a given month provide only a snapshot in time, and may be skewed or influenced by what type of homes are selling in a particular period of time. If, for example, there happen to be many more sales of high-end homes one month, the median price will be high.
Ron Shuffield, president of Esslinger Wooten Maxfield, one of the largest real estate brokerages in Miami-Dade and Broward, suggests looking at another set of numbers to get a sense of housing market trends: inventory.
"We're selling twice as many homes today as we were a year ago as an industry and we have half the inventory,'' Shuffield said. "Our business is about supply and demand. Less supply will bring prices up.''
But for those thinking of selling their house now, McCabe reminds them they're "selling near the bottom.''
"Don't think that you're going to get 2005 prices. That was imaginary wealth. That's gone. What you're going to get is a market price and you'll be competing with foreclosures and short sales,'' he said.
McCabe said it's important for buyers and sellers to be aware that data can be "manipulated to present a very positive or negative view,'' and some government data published four times a year can be "antiquated.''
Consumer websites, on the other hand, "can be tremendously out of whack,'' McCabe said. "Some are based on formulas realistic in a normal housing market but not really functional in a boom and bust marketplace like Florida.''
Experts say it is also important for those who use consumer-oriented websites like Zillow and Trulia to cross-check data with public records and other sources.
Trulia gets its information from sale listings on the local Multiple Listing Services, major brokerages across the U.S. and individual real estate agents. It also has foreclosure listings from RealtyTrac.
Zillow takes a different approach and offers what they call the "Zestimate'' home valuation, which is Zillow's estimated market value for a house, calculated using a proprietary formula. It uses public data. Users can update information on their own house.
Besides the array of data Zillow provides, what sets its data apart is its ability to zoom from the U.S. level all the way down to the state, metro area, county, city and ZIP code, said Zillow's chief economist, Stan Humphries. "Other approaches are not able to go that low (in scale) because they need a sufficient volume of homes that sell twice (Zillow includes new home sales),'' he said. "Typically that is the size of a county as opposed to a neighborhood.''
Veteran real estate agents like Riley Smith of EWM said people should ultimately look at local numbers when buying or selling. "Most Realtors will just say, draw a map around the house and ask what's closed in the past six months,'' Smith said. "That's still the best way to do it.''
For folks like Jim Terrill, statistics are key.
Dubbed the "king of stats,'' by his real estate agent, Terrill scoured every housing statistic he could find. When the Key Largo resident and his wife, Linda, decided to move to Pinecrest to live near their grandkids, they searched government records, consumer and Realtor sites and more.
"We had this plethora of information,'' said Terrill, who expects to close on a house in July. "I just can't imagine buying a house without this information because there it is in black and white.''
Buying a home in South Florida can be confusing in the current market. Talk to a Realtor for the most current information to help you with your home-buying decisions. We can also provide you with an up-to-date snapshot of recent sales and current listings in your community. For a free personalized report, call us at 305-456-6456, or click below.
Community Reports
Thursday, June 10, 2010
Friday, June 4, 2010
Condo Developers Have Sky-High Dreams for Brickell Area - June 4, 2010
Construction on a 35-story condo tower is set to begin in July in Miami's Brickell corridor. SkyPalace developers hope it will pump new life into the area's real estate market.
BY INA PAIVA CORDLE
icordle@MiamiHerald.com
Picture a lobby adorned with Roman columns, statues and a Swarovski crystal chandelier. Eleven stories above, a pool deck offers panoramic views of Brickell Avenue skyscrapers.
Perching atop Publix at Mary Brickell Village, construction on SkyPalace, a new 35-story condominium tower, is slated to begin next month after three years of delay.
Pending financing, Miami's overheated condo market will get its latest infusion when the Mediterranean-style building is completed at the end of 2011. As the first residential building built in the Brickell corridor since the condo glut began, its developers hope it will pump new life into the area's real estate market.
"We want to be one of the only products available in the market upon delivery that's new,'' said Isos Stamelos-Monroe, 30, SkyPalace's vice president of sales.
To date, buyers -- mostly foreign investors and second-home purchasers -- have put contracts on 190 of the 369 units, priced from $249,000 to $2.5 million, he said.
That's a positive step for both the project and the market, said real estate analyst Michael Y. Cannon.
"This is a sign that if they are successful in getting presales, and the construction lender lends, hopefully the market has made its turn,'' said Cannon, executive director of Integra Realty Resources-Miami.
Stamelos-Monroe is counting on existing condo inventory in the area to be absorbed and mortgages to be more readily available by the time buyers close on SkyPalace units.
A March report by Goodkin Consulting and Focus Real Estate Advisors shows that 22,079 new condos were delivered in Miami's downtown corridor, including Brickell, from 2003 through early 2010. More than 70 percent of that inventory has now been absorbed, leaving 7,500 new condos available in the downtown corridor.
'A TOUGH SELL'
But Jack Winston, principal with Goodkin Consulting in Miami, said SkyPalace will have a "tough sell.'' Since the recession began, condo sales have been sluggish and have only begun picking up this year due to bulk sales and sharp discounts.
"In this kind of environment, to absorb [7,500 condo units] is certainly going to take longer than the 18 months it will take to finish the building,'' Winston said, adding that mortgages for end-buyers may still be hard to find.
Key to SkyPalace's sales, Cannon said, will be highly competitive pricing. So far, Stamelos-Monroe said, recent presales have averaged $320 per square foot.
"That's about what market prices are for the rollback of prices of existing inventory of better buildings,'' Cannon said. "So it sounds like they are in the right price range.''
It has taken several years to get to this point.
Skyline Equities Realty initially bought a build-to-suit project for the tower above Publix in Mary Brickell Village from Fairfield Residential in 2004.
Due to delays in the construction of the village, Fairfield didn't begin construction in 2007, as planned. So Skyline Equities Realty negotiated a purchase of the air rights -- the rights to build above the planned Publix -- for less than $9 million, said Stamelos-Monroe, who is also director of acquisitions for Skyline Equities Realty, and the grandson of the companies' CEO, Evangeline Gouletas.
Preconstruction sales of SkyPalace had already begun in 2004, continuing through 2006. But in early 2007, as construction continued to be delayed amid problems pulling permits and troubled real estate and financial markets, Skyline "needed to buy time,'' Stamelos-Monroe said.
ON HOLD
So having added three years to the delivery date, Skyline reaffirmed 162 of its 240 sales contracts in July 2007, he said. Then it continued on hold, as the housing market tumbled.
Now, despite ongoing difficulties securing construction loans, Skyline expects to close on more than $85 million in construction financing from a Colorado-based hedge fund by the end of June.
Construction will begin shortly afterward and continue for about 18 months, Stamelos-Monroe said. Since Fairfield had already started the lobby, foundation and parking garage at 2003-2004 costs, construction time and costs will be lower than they would have been had Skyline had to start from scratch, he said.
As a result, hard construction costs are $150 per square foot, and total costs are estimated at $130 million, or $285 per square foot, including interest, sales, marketing and other soft costs, he said.
"All those factors balance out to make it a go project,'' said Stamelos-Monroe, who expects the building to net a profit of $40 million.
Publix spokeswoman Kim Jaeger declined to comment on the construction, saying the company is "still evaluating the possible impacts to Publix and how best to handle them.''
MEDITERRANEAN LOOK
SkyPalace's design is a Mediterranean village concept, with a modern twist, said Stylianos Vayanos, SkyPalace's vice president of public relations and international marketing. Buyers have the ability to customize units with four or five bedrooms, or buy duplexes, the equivalent of two side-by-side units.
Residents will have access to concierge services. Kitchens will have Italian cabinetry, granite counter tops and stainless steel appliances. And upper floor units will have an unobstructed view of the Bay.
The location on top of Mary Brickell Village should add to its marketability, Cannon said.
"It's right in the center of everything,'' he said. "You've got the Metrorail next door, and the synergism is occurring because you have the day and night life activity going on there. You can work, play and live all in the same area.''
Read more: http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/06/04/1662501_p2/condo-developers-have-sky-high.html#ixzz0puFcwDOI
Call us today at 305-456-6456 or email at info@oceanskyrealty.com for more information about SkyPalace, or other condominiums in Brickell. We would be happy to help you find the home of your dreams.
BY INA PAIVA CORDLE
icordle@MiamiHerald.com
Picture a lobby adorned with Roman columns, statues and a Swarovski crystal chandelier. Eleven stories above, a pool deck offers panoramic views of Brickell Avenue skyscrapers.
Perching atop Publix at Mary Brickell Village, construction on SkyPalace, a new 35-story condominium tower, is slated to begin next month after three years of delay.
Pending financing, Miami's overheated condo market will get its latest infusion when the Mediterranean-style building is completed at the end of 2011. As the first residential building built in the Brickell corridor since the condo glut began, its developers hope it will pump new life into the area's real estate market.
"We want to be one of the only products available in the market upon delivery that's new,'' said Isos Stamelos-Monroe, 30, SkyPalace's vice president of sales.
To date, buyers -- mostly foreign investors and second-home purchasers -- have put contracts on 190 of the 369 units, priced from $249,000 to $2.5 million, he said.
That's a positive step for both the project and the market, said real estate analyst Michael Y. Cannon.
"This is a sign that if they are successful in getting presales, and the construction lender lends, hopefully the market has made its turn,'' said Cannon, executive director of Integra Realty Resources-Miami.
Stamelos-Monroe is counting on existing condo inventory in the area to be absorbed and mortgages to be more readily available by the time buyers close on SkyPalace units.
A March report by Goodkin Consulting and Focus Real Estate Advisors shows that 22,079 new condos were delivered in Miami's downtown corridor, including Brickell, from 2003 through early 2010. More than 70 percent of that inventory has now been absorbed, leaving 7,500 new condos available in the downtown corridor.
'A TOUGH SELL'
But Jack Winston, principal with Goodkin Consulting in Miami, said SkyPalace will have a "tough sell.'' Since the recession began, condo sales have been sluggish and have only begun picking up this year due to bulk sales and sharp discounts.
"In this kind of environment, to absorb [7,500 condo units] is certainly going to take longer than the 18 months it will take to finish the building,'' Winston said, adding that mortgages for end-buyers may still be hard to find.
Key to SkyPalace's sales, Cannon said, will be highly competitive pricing. So far, Stamelos-Monroe said, recent presales have averaged $320 per square foot.
"That's about what market prices are for the rollback of prices of existing inventory of better buildings,'' Cannon said. "So it sounds like they are in the right price range.''
It has taken several years to get to this point.
Skyline Equities Realty initially bought a build-to-suit project for the tower above Publix in Mary Brickell Village from Fairfield Residential in 2004.
Due to delays in the construction of the village, Fairfield didn't begin construction in 2007, as planned. So Skyline Equities Realty negotiated a purchase of the air rights -- the rights to build above the planned Publix -- for less than $9 million, said Stamelos-Monroe, who is also director of acquisitions for Skyline Equities Realty, and the grandson of the companies' CEO, Evangeline Gouletas.
Preconstruction sales of SkyPalace had already begun in 2004, continuing through 2006. But in early 2007, as construction continued to be delayed amid problems pulling permits and troubled real estate and financial markets, Skyline "needed to buy time,'' Stamelos-Monroe said.
ON HOLD
So having added three years to the delivery date, Skyline reaffirmed 162 of its 240 sales contracts in July 2007, he said. Then it continued on hold, as the housing market tumbled.
Now, despite ongoing difficulties securing construction loans, Skyline expects to close on more than $85 million in construction financing from a Colorado-based hedge fund by the end of June.
Construction will begin shortly afterward and continue for about 18 months, Stamelos-Monroe said. Since Fairfield had already started the lobby, foundation and parking garage at 2003-2004 costs, construction time and costs will be lower than they would have been had Skyline had to start from scratch, he said.
As a result, hard construction costs are $150 per square foot, and total costs are estimated at $130 million, or $285 per square foot, including interest, sales, marketing and other soft costs, he said.
"All those factors balance out to make it a go project,'' said Stamelos-Monroe, who expects the building to net a profit of $40 million.
Publix spokeswoman Kim Jaeger declined to comment on the construction, saying the company is "still evaluating the possible impacts to Publix and how best to handle them.''
MEDITERRANEAN LOOK
SkyPalace's design is a Mediterranean village concept, with a modern twist, said Stylianos Vayanos, SkyPalace's vice president of public relations and international marketing. Buyers have the ability to customize units with four or five bedrooms, or buy duplexes, the equivalent of two side-by-side units.
Residents will have access to concierge services. Kitchens will have Italian cabinetry, granite counter tops and stainless steel appliances. And upper floor units will have an unobstructed view of the Bay.
The location on top of Mary Brickell Village should add to its marketability, Cannon said.
"It's right in the center of everything,'' he said. "You've got the Metrorail next door, and the synergism is occurring because you have the day and night life activity going on there. You can work, play and live all in the same area.''
Read more: http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/06/04/1662501_p2/condo-developers-have-sky-high.html#ixzz0puFcwDOI
Call us today at 305-456-6456 or email at info@oceanskyrealty.com for more information about SkyPalace, or other condominiums in Brickell. We would be happy to help you find the home of your dreams.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
